Hurricane Polo made landfall in Baja California Sur, Mexico, early on Tuesday, September 29, as a Category 2. Mexico's national weather service reported sustained winds of 150 to 170 km/h, gusts to 200 km/h and waves of 7 to 9 meters (23 to 30 ft).
For surfers, though, Polo's story started a week earlier. On the 22nd it became one of the most intense hurricanes ever measured in the Pacific, and it spent the following days tracking up the Mexican coast and sending swell to beaches hundreds and thousands of kilometers away. Here is where that swell went, beach by beach.
Hurricane Polo at a glance
Peak: Category 5, winds of 285 km/h (180 mph) and a central pressure of 892 mb on September 22. That makes it the second most intense Pacific hurricane by pressure, behind only Patricia (2015)
Landfall: 06:00 UTC on September 29 (11 pm local time on the 28th), just south of Las Barrancas on Baja California Sur's west coast, as a Category 2
Waves: 7 to 9 m on the Baja coast, according to Mexico; 7 to 8 m in Acapulco
Swell: hit Mexico's Pacific coast, Los Cabos and Southern California, where it arrived between September 27 and 29
Now: Polo is crossing the Gulf of California, making a second landfall in Sonora and falling apart over the mainland by Wednesday (30th). The swell is dropping
How Hurricane Polo became a Category 5 in 40 hours
Polo formed on September 20 as a tropical depression off southwestern Mexico and became a tropical storm on the 21st. It found perfect conditions to grow: water at 31 °C (88 °F) and almost no wind shear.
The result was one of the fastest intensifications on record. Winds rose by about 175 km/h (110 mph) in 24 hours, and the system went from tropical depression to Category 5 in roughly 40 hours. On the 22nd it bottomed out at 892 mb.
Over the following days, eyewall replacement cycles made its strength rise and fall. Polo became the first Pacific hurricane to reach Category 5 three times. On Friday (25th), still a Category 5, it sat about 640 km (400 miles) southeast of Cabo San Lucas.
How hurricanes make swell
The waves that reach a distant beach are born from wind blowing over the ocean. Three things decide how big the swell gets:
Wind strength: the stronger it blows, the more energy goes into the sea
Fetch: the stretch of ocean the wind blows across in the same direction
Duration: how long the wind keeps blowing over that fetch
A compact hurricane has extreme wind, but over a small area. What made Polo a swell machine was Category 5 strength combined with several days tracking parallel to the coast. The side of a hurricane that moves in the same direction as its swell acts like a treadmill: the wind keeps pushing the waves it has already made.
Close to the centre the sea is chaos. Further away, the waves sort themselves into lines with longer periods and arrive clean at beaches with no wind at all.
Hurricane Polo swell: where it hit, beach by beach
The figures below come from the wave model for the water off each beach and show the day's maximum significant height. In the surf zone, wave faces are usually much bigger than that number, especially at spots that focus energy.
| Beach | Swell peak | Height (max) | Direction | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boca de Pascuales, Colima | Sep 24 | 3.1 m | S (162°) | 10 s |
| Playa Costa Azul, San José del Cabo | Sep 25 to 27 | 2.4 to 2.9 m | SE to S | 10 to 11 s |
| Cerritos, Baja California Sur | Sep 27 | 3.0 m | S (199°) | 9 s |
| Newport Beach, California | Sep 28 and 29 | 1.4 m | S (185°) | 12.5 s |
| Seal Beach, California | Sep 28 and 29 | 1.3 m | S (173°) | 12 s |
You can watch the swell move up the coast with the storm: first Colima, then Los Cabos, then Southern California, more than 1,400 km (870 miles) beyond Cabo.
Surf on Mexico's Pacific coast
As Polo passed southwestern Mexico, seas reached 7 to 8 meters in Acapulco. At Boca de Pascuales, one of the heaviest beach breaks in the country, the model showed 3.1 m on the 24th. In San Blas, Nayarit, river flooding trapped more than a dozen people.
Cabo San Lucas and San José del Cabo surf
The first southeast pulse reached San José del Cabo on Friday (25th), with the hurricane still hundreds of kilometers away. According to Surfline's forecast, as reported by Surfer, the best spots went double overhead plus, with standout waves approaching 15-foot faces. On the Pacific side, Cerritos and San Pedrito saw the biggest surf on Sunday (27th).
Southern California swell
Polo never came near California, but its swell did. It started arriving late on Sunday (27th) and peaked on Monday and Tuesday, on top of morning high tides of about 7 feet. South-facing beaches were the most exposed: Long Beach, Belmont Shore, Avalon, Malibu and Seal Beach, where crews built sand berms and readied pumps against flooding.
Polo's swell arrived alongside energy from Hurricane Odalys, further west in the open Pacific. On California's beaches, the two mixed together.
Hurricane Polo's track and the surf forecast now
Polo is weakening fast over land and should dissipate by Wednesday (30th). With no wind feeding the ocean, the swell is dropping:
Southern California: the model has Newport falling from 1.4 m on Tuesday to about 0.9 m by Thursday (October 1)
Baja's west coast and northwest Mexico: the US National Hurricane Center expects dangerous surf and rip currents for about another day
Polo's moisture is heading into the southwestern United States, with flood watches across 11 states. Mexico has reported at least two deaths and one person missing so far.
El Niño 2026 and an off-the-charts hurricane season
Polo is the third Category 5 hurricane of the 2026 eastern Pacific season, after Genevieve and Lowell, and the 25th in the region since 1949. Forecasters point to a strong El Niño, which warms the surface of the Pacific and cuts wind shear, as the backdrop to all this activity.
For surfers, that means a season with plenty of hurricane swell on Mexico's Pacific coast and in California, and a reason to watch every system closely. Hurricane swell arrives strong, with long periods and sets that catch out even experienced surfers.
FAQ
What category is Hurricane Polo?
At its peak on September 22, Polo was a Category 5, with 180 mph (285 km/h) winds and a pressure of 892 mb. It made landfall in Baja California Sur as a Category 2 and is weakening fast over land.
Where did Hurricane Polo make landfall?
Just south of Las Barrancas, on the west coast of Baja California Sur, Mexico, at 06:00 UTC on September 29 (11 pm local time on the 28th), as a Category 2. It then crossed the Gulf of California towards Sonora.
How big were Hurricane Polo's waves?
Mexico's weather service reported waves of 7 to 9 meters on the Baja California coast. In Acapulco, seas reached 7 to 8 meters. In Los Cabos, the biggest surfable waves approached 15-foot faces.
Will Hurricane Polo hit California?
Not directly. What reached California was the swell, between September 27 and 29, with a risk of erosion and flooding on south-facing beaches. Polo's moisture is also bringing rain to the southwestern United States.
Why did Polo get so strong?
Water at 31 °C, little wind shear and 2026's strong El Niño. Together they took Polo from tropical depression to Category 5 in about 40 hours, down to 892 mb, the second lowest pressure ever measured in the Pacific.
Surf forecast for the beaches Polo hit
Hurricane swell changes fast, and every beach takes it differently depending on its exposure and its bottom. Check the forecast for Costa Azul, Cerritos, Newport Beach, Huntington Beach and Malibu before you paddle out.
Cover image: Hurricane Polo at Category 5 on September 22, seen by the NOAA-20 satellite (VIIRS). NOAA, public domain.
